U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS US Civilian unemployment rate
Bloomberg Bonds
Google VXN index
BarChart Top Gold Stocks
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The 10 most important rates / indices / indicators to follow for an investor.

  1. The US inflation rate. Ceteris paribus, a rise above the target of 2 % will reduce the real value of financial assets, especially bonds.
  2. The FED funds rate. It will rise to decrease inflation pressure. It is also important for the interest level.
  3. The US 10 year treasury yield (US10Y). The most siginficant yield, the anchor point of all interests and the discount factor for stocks. Ceteris paribus, stocks valued by the present value of free cash flows or earnings will decrase in value when the yield increases. A double edged sword for Banks, since bank spreads will increase with increasing interest level. A rise is bad for companies with much debt and good for companies with large bank deposits.
  4. The us unemployment rate. The inverse of the FEDs most important goal, maximum employment.
  5. The VIX (The volatility or fear indicator of the US stock market) / VXN (The volatility or fear indicator of the NASDAQ, US tech stocks).
  6. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The stock markets most important index of mostly US value stocks.
  7. NASDAQ. The index of US big tech companies. More negatively affected by an increase in the US10Y than DJIA.
  9. The gold price. Gold is a hedge against inflation and an important element in a well diversified portfolio. More gold the higher the market has increased.
  10. The dollar index. Like the VIX and VXN it has an inverse relationship with the stock market. Historically the USD is regarded as a safe haven when the market crash.


Larry Summers (35 minutes out in the video) - Economy at risk of overheating. We can't let inflation accelerate. The reality of the economy is an interest rate far below the neutral rate and we have got a tight labour market. That is a prescription for rising inflation, not falling inflation.

Fed: Seven officials see 2023 rate hike, up from five

Powell said that inflation expectations are firmly anchored around 2 percent in the long run. There is a wage Phillips curve, but not a traditional price (inflation) Phillps curve that has been broken for years. There may by temporary inflation above 2 percent. Transitory inflation above 2 % is no reason for rasing the fed funds rate.

Is inflation here to stay?

Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers tells Fareed why he believes the current inflation spike is more than a temporary blip. For many people inflation is a test of whether the country is under control.

Fed has to be careful to not sound 'very hawkish'